Xavier's Finance Community

Russia - The world's most-sanctioned country

Ever imagined waking up just to experience a nightmare again? Just as it finally began to feel like the world was recovering from the devastating pandemic, we found ourselves amidst the ghastly warfare that has erupted from the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, escalating the Russo-Ukrainian conflict which started in 2014. With more than 12 million Ukrainians leaving the country and a third of the population superseded, no doubt, these are among the darkest hours of Europe since the Second World War.

Russia’s moves, apparently, have had repercussions which dangled the whole Russian economy to the core. Not only was the country condemned and labelled inhumanitarian, but Russia has also had to face the harshest package of sanctions ever implemented.

Imposing sanctions are one of the most severe measures a country can take short of going to war. It aims to punish the rule-breaking country and limit the dire repercussions of the situation of international concern by devising various schemes such as denying access to much-needed technologies, goods etc. 

The EU was among the first few that imposed sanctions on Russia, with the purpose of leaving its most important business ally in “unprecedented isolation”. This was followed by the United States and Canada. 

At present, Russia is under extensive international pressure for its invasion of Ukraine. With over 5,500 sanctions against it, Russia has become the world’s most sanctioned country.

Let us analyze these sanctions, which have become critical not only for Russia but for the whole world.

Economic sanctions: 

  • Financial sector – Undoubtedly, a direct way to harm an economy is to impair its financial sector. 

(i) In exchange for Russian atrocities, Western countries have frozen Russia’s central bank’s assets, preventing it from using its $630 billion in foreign currency reserves. The ruble thus lost 22% of its value, pushing up the cost of imported goods and the Russian inflation rate by 17%.

The Rouble has since recovered, owing to Putin’s drastic financial measures, which include raising interest rates to 20% and imposing strict capital controls on those who desire to exchange rubles for foreign currencies.

(ii) To ratchet up pressure on Moscow, the U.S. has barred Russia from paying its debts with the $600 million it has in American banks, making it more difficult for Russia to repay its international debts.

Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia has avoided defaulting on its international debt until now. It has a total of 15 international bonds with a face value of around $40 billion. The country recently paid off its government debts by making payments in US dollars, just ahead of the final deadline on March 4th, 2022. But the task is only getting harder. 

(iii) Major Russian banks have been removed from the Swift international financial messaging system, triggering the Russian Financial Crisis. The goal is for Russian businesses to lose access to untroubled Swift transactions, disrupting payments for the country’s valuable agricultural exports and energy. Banks must now deal directly with one another, and this is causing delays and additional costs for the Russian government and ultimately cutting off revenue. Russia’s former finance minister has suggested that Russia’s economy could shrink by 5% due to being cut off from Swift. 

The European Commission has proposed that three more banks be excluded from Swift, including Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, which controls more than a third of the country’s banking sector.

(iv) The U.K. has barred key Russian banks from the U.K. financial system, frozen all Russian banks’ assets, barred Russian firms from borrowing money, and imposed deposit limits on Russians in U.K. banks. 

  • Military goods – A country which is amidst conducting a “special military operation” would irrefutably have a gargantuan appetite for military goods and mercenaries. Therefore, as one would expect, this is one of the critical areas that has been targeted.

    (i) EU, U.K. and U.S. have imposed a ban on the export of dual-use goods (items with both civilian and military purposes such as vehicle parts, solar cells etc) to Russia.

    (ii) The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company tasked with assassinating Ukraine’s president, has been sanctioned by the U.K.

    (iii) Among the top targets of U.S. sanctions is the Tactical Missiles Corporation. KTRV is a Russian state-owned defence conglomerate that produces hypersonic weapons and technology used in radar systems and other multipurpose missiles.
  • Energy – Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, third-largest exporter of crude oil, and third-largest exporter of coal. Imposing sanctions on them implies a significant reduction in Russia’s income and a very dire situation for other countries.

    (i) On 8th March 2022, the US decided to pull the plug on all Russian oil, liquified natural gas, and coal imports setting energy prices to historic highs. In fact, only 1% of Russia’s crude oil is directed to the U.S. The U.S., thus, is in no position to harm Russia’s oil industry on its own. But the U.S. ban is not ineffective, either. The move has heightened the pressure on Russian energy companies, which have been cut off by private companies. Besides, the U.S. has also prohibited new investment in the energy sector in Russia by a United States person.

    (ii) Germany has frozen plans for the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia which could have otherwise increased Russia’s natural gas export capacity directly to Germany and resulted in generating a huge cash flow.

    (iii) The U.K. intends to cut off Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 The EU has also stated that Russian coal imports shall be suspended by August. According to the European Central Bank, a 10% reduction in gas supplies to the eurozone would result in a 0.7% reduction in output, making an outright ban extremely damaging.

Russia has warned the world that banning its oil would have calamitous implications for the global market. But at the very least, the International Energy Agency (IEA), on May 12, affirmed that the world would not run out of oil even if Russia’s output was reduced due to sanctions.

On one hand, where Russia is facing huge losses, it as well announced a cutting off of natural gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria after both countries refused to comply with its request of making export payments in rubles.

Where the EU is slapping Russia with several economic sanctions, Russia’s monthly earnings from selling fossil fuels to the EU have nearly doubled, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Since the start of the war, the EU has imported about $23 billion in fossil fuels per month from Russia, compared to an average of about $12.5 billion per month in 2021. 

Apart from these economic sanctions imposed on Russia, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and other countries have, sanctioned over 1,000 Russian individuals and businesses. 

Individual restrictive measures:

A list of individuals against whom sanctions have been imposed by western countries include: 

  • Oligarchs, or wealthy business people, who are thought to be close to the Kremlin, such as Chelsea FC, former owner of Roman Abramovich.
  • Russian officials and their families, including President Vladimir Putin’s adult children and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s relatives.
  • The assets of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have been frozen in the U.S., the U.K., the European Union, and Canada.
  • The United Kingdom has also halted the sale of “golden visas,” which allowed wealthy Russians to obtain residency in the United Kingdom.

It is interesting to note that the Russian Central Bank’s foreign reserves have been frozen around the world to the tune of €283 billion. In fact, early in April, the EU announced that its Task Force had frozen €29.5 billion in assets, including boats, real estate, artwork and helicopters and had blocked about €196 billion in transactions. Meanwhile, the UK has announced that it has frozen €583 billion in assets from Russian banks and businesses, some of which are partly state-owned, as well as €175 billion in assets from oligarchs and their family members.

Can the EU or Ukraine ever make use of these billion-dollar Russian assets that have been frozen?

Well, Russia has been trying hard to recover its foreign assets through legal actions but the fact that it has been held in so many jurisdictions makes it tough.

On the flip side, both Washington and Brussels have expressed support for using Russian assets frozen by sanctions to fund Ukraine’s resistance or reconstruction but doing so will take a very long time. 

In these hard times, where countries are stopping their trade with Russia, the corporates too are temporarily curtailing operations or pulling out entirely from Russia. It has become one of the many pressure points on Russia’s economy. 

Corporate action:

After more than 3 months of fighting in Ukraine, ordinary Russians have fewer options when they go shopping. All they see is empty shelves at supermarkets, the rationing of staples and shuttered stores. More than 1,000 international corporations, including Coca-Cola and Starbucks, have either discontinued or abandoned their operations in Russia, thus decoupling the country from the rest of the world. Some sided with concerns about the conflict and the safety of employees, while others left as the U.S. and its allies imposed a slew of sanctions that could make doing business in the country more difficult. One of the major problems these companies were facing included carrying out basic tasks like importing supplies or paying employees after several Russian banks were delisted from the global financial messaging system.

Jobs in Russia are also in jeopardy as a result of these retreats. So far, most of the companies that have pulled out, said that they shall continue paying their employees but it is unclear as to how long they will be able to last, so one can only wait and watch how things unfold. 

Though several abandoned, not all have chosen to leave Russia. Some are playing a balancing act by keeping the status quo and reducing the scope of the project. For instance, McDonald’s has suspended direct operations in Russia but the outlets owned by local franchises have remained open. Pepsi has halted sales of its big soda brands but it would continue to sell other products like milk and baby food. Nestle has pulled some of its brands, such as KitKat and Nesquik, but says it will continue to sell “essential foods.”

Brands, such as Marks & Spencer, Burger King, and hotel giants Marriott and Accor, argue they are unable to withdraw because their operations in Russia are governed by intricate franchise agreements. Sports giants such as F1 and UEFA plan to shift their schedule from Russia because of the ongoing war. 

These departures of corporations and the imposition of unprecedented economic scenarios in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine may well make Russia lose its status as a major economy. Russian Experts predict that Russia’s GDP will contract by up to 15% this year, wiping out the last fifteen years of economic gains. 

The severity and speed with which the penalties were implemented caused the ruble to crash and the Russian stock market to close. Inflation in Russia has spiked above 17% –  and is forecasted to accelerate even higher. The Kremlin, however, has been able to keep the ruble stable and limit the impact on consumers and the war effort thanks to rising prices for its oil and gas exports.

Supply chains, in the whole country, have also been severely disrupted. Russian President Vladimir Putin, nevertheless, has vowed to carry out a raft of measures to offset the pain of sanctions on Russians and the government reassured the public that there shall be plenty of food and other necessities.

Besides domestic turmoil, the UN has warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could spark a global food crisis that could last years. Food insecurity in poorer countries has worsened as a result of the war, according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

“We’ve seen examples from other countries like Iran and Venezuela where even prolonged application of very extreme sanctions have not substantially changed the decision-making,” said Oksana Antonenko, director at Control Risks in London. Whether this escalating pressure from various countries and corporations is enough to weaken Putin’s resolve remains to be seen. 

Contributed by: Priyanshi Dwivedy and  Chirag Ladha

(Priyanshi Dwivedy is a 1st year student pursuing Bachelor of Commerce(H) at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata and a Research Analyst of the Xavier’s Finance Community.)
(Chirag Ladha is a 1st year student pursuing Bachelor of Commerce(H) at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata and a Research Analyst of the Xavier’s Finance Community.)